Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $58,517$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(9.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,566.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 40.9)}}\) (asimptote \(56,566.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,486$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.59 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,170.9}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,170.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,112$ on 2020-06-01

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $239,638$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(5.54 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{229,031.8}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 34.8)}}\) (asimptote \(229,031.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,127$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(6.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,206.9}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,206.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $62,135$ on 2020-06-01

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $277,736$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(2.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{278,348.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 51.5)}}\) (asimptote \(278,348.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $39,127$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(5.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,460.7}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(37,460.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $237,388$ on 2020-06-01

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $233,197$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(4.63 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{227,008.0}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(227,008.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,475$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(5.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,419.0}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(32,419.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $41,367$ on 2020-06-01

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $189,348$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(3.59 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{181,623.4}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(181,623.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,836$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(5.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,833.4}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(27,833.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $91,954$ on 2020-06-01

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $37,814$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(2.88 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(24.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,930.5}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 60.9)}}\) (asimptote \(39,930.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,403$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(472 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,372.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,372.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,440$ on 2020-06-01

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $46,749$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(8.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,175.0}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 39.9)}}\) (asimptote \(45,175.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,981$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,845.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,845.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $40,589$ on 2020-06-01

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,062$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(3.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,584.9}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 43.7)}}\) (asimptote \(24,584.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,650$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(200 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,617.5}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 43.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,617.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,323$ on 2020-06-01

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Slovenia recovered 99%
Luxembourg recovered 98%
Andorra recovered 97%
Austria recovered 95%
Croatia recovered 95%
Slovakia recovered 88%
Estonia recovered 87%
Germany recovered 87%
Denmark recovered 81%
Malta recovered 79%
Lithuania recovered 64%
Italy recovered 62%
Czechia recovered 57%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 52%
San Marino recovered 43%
Serbia recovered 43%
Hungary recovered 41%
Romania recovered 39%
Bulgaria recovered 15%

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,473$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(526 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,458.9}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 24.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,458.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $109$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(24.2 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.5}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(105.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6$ on 2020-06-01

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,019$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,862.7}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 31.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,862.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(28 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107.3}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 29.1)}}\) (asimptote \(107.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $64$ on 2020-06-01

Andorra⮸

Population $77,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $765$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(217 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{754.1}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(754.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $51$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(17.2 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50.1}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 21.0)}}\) (asimptote \(50.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16$ on 2020-06-01

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,733$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(4.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,833.8}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 28.7)}}\) (asimptote \(15,833.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $668$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(153 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{639.3}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(639.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $469$ on 2020-06-01