Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $58,517$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(9.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,566.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 40.9)}}\) (asimptote \(56,566.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,486$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(1.59 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,170.9}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,170.9\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,112$ on 2020-06-01
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $239,638$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(5.54 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{229,031.8}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 34.8)}}\) (asimptote \(229,031.8\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,127$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(6.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,206.9}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,206.9\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $62,135$ on 2020-06-01
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $277,736$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(2.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{278,348.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 51.5)}}\) (asimptote \(278,348.1\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $39,127$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(5.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,460.7}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(37,460.7\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $237,388$ on 2020-06-01
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $233,197$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(4.63 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{227,008.0}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(227,008.0\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,475$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(5.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,419.0}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(32,419.0\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $41,367$ on 2020-06-01
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $189,348$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(3.59 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{181,623.4}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(181,623.4\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,836$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(5.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,833.4}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(27,833.4\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $91,954$ on 2020-06-01
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $37,814$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(2.88 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(24.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,930.5}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 60.9)}}\) (asimptote \(39,930.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,403$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(472 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,372.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,372.1\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,440$ on 2020-06-01
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $46,749$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(8.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,175.0}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 39.9)}}\) (asimptote \(45,175.0\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,981$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(1.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,845.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,845.5\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $40,589$ on 2020-06-01
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,062$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(3.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,584.9}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 43.7)}}\) (asimptote \(24,584.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,650$ on 2020-06-01
Best fit exponential: \(200 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,617.5}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 43.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,617.5\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,323$ on 2020-06-01